It's a Long way back from here

Derry travel to Longford on Saturday to either salvage something from a season that has gone horribly wrong, or to put the final nail in it. Following the performance against Donegal a fortnight ago, Derry fans will be extremely pessimistic about their side's chances of going much further this year, and - never needing too much of an excuse at the best of times - are unlikely to travel even in respectable numbers to Pearse Park.

Longford was not the ideal draw, and with the GAA somehow shoe-horning in a crazy rule about the team that played last year's first round away from home allowed home advantage the following year, the draw has been made all the more difficult. Out of Derry's last ten qualifier games, two of them have been played at home, so if the GAA are trying to create a fair system it's not working. And in any case they should focus their concentrations on the blatantly obvious inequalities in the All-Ireland Football Championship as a whole (i.e. the unfair provincial structures) instead of worrying about petty little details like which first round qualifier team gets home advantage.

Anyway, the respective form of the two sides has resulted in Derry being made underdogs for this tie (as big as 6/4 in places), and the general consensus is that the Oak Leafers will have their work cut out. Most of this is based on the poor showing in Ballybofey, whilst Longford's ascension from Leinster's lower tier to the middle tier and promotion to Division 2 of the NFL, marks them out as a team on the rise. Home advantage will help them, having beaten not only Derry, but also Mayo and Down in Championship football at Pearse Park in recent years (and they ran Kerry close in 2009).

But is it an automatic given that Longford will beat Derry? The Leinster outfit certainly haven't become world-beaters over night. They struggled past a passive Laois outfit in their opening championship game and were beaten after a replay by Wexford in a LSFC quarter-final. So, it's fair to say that their current level is somewhere around that of Laois, Wexford, Louth and Westmeath. Ordinarily you would imagine Derry not to be outmatched in that sort of company, but this year's results have suggested otherwise and that is where the problems lie for John Brennan and his squad as they travel south this weekend. Perhaps that is something of an advantage. Six years ago Derry were expected to comfortably deal with the O'Farrell men in a Round 3 qualifier at Pearse Park and came out with a one-point defeat. The current Derry side will not be taking anything for granted this time around. Not just because they know what to expect from this particular fixture, but also because teams of this ilk have caused us serious problems in 2012.

John Brennan has a job on his hands to reverse the fortunes. The main criticism levelled at his team in the aftermath of Ballybofey was they they did not show enough fight, spirit and hunger. The second half of that game provided foundation to those claims and that will be Brennan's first concern. We all know that the Oak Leaf squad contains matchwinners, but if the fifteen men on the field don't reach the required intensity levels, or at least match the workrate of their opposition, the ability of the likes of Paddy Bradley, Mark Lynch and Eoin Bradley to win their side football matches is diluted significantly. If the Oak Leaf squad have done nothing on the training ground this week bar working on tackling high up the pitch and getting numbers back and forward in tandem to support those in possession, then it will have been a week well spent. The ball must be moved quicker and the tackles must be more aggressive. Derry need to set out that stall very early in order to come away from Longford with a victory, because their opponents can organise themselves very effectively and are unlikely to give up an early lead, especially against a side low in confidence.

The man behind Longford's renaissance is former Kildare stalwart Glenn Ryan. He has them well organised and they can close down space very quickly. It makes them difficult to beat. On top of that they have matchwinners of their own, in the form of Paul Barden, Brian Kavanagh and Sean McCormack. That's actually where this Longford side excels, they can create in-game scenarios that gets the best out of their key individuals. Barden's performances in 2012 is a prime example. He's been around the Longford set up for over a decade, but it's only now that he appears to be reaching his potential. Derry will need to be extra vigilant around him on Saturday, as he has the size, pace and footballing ability to open up a defence. He can also take a score and has introduced into his game an awareness of those around him. Not dissimilar to the role Michael Murphy plays for Donegal.

That's no coincidence, because Ryan has tried to introduce a system similar to that of Donegal's to this group of Longford players. It feels like a lazy comparison, but Longford are like a Donegal-lite or a Kildare-lite. They all work hard and are prepared to sacrifice their own newspaper ratings for the good of the team. Like McGeeney and McGuinness, Ryan has commanded total respect from his players, who are all willing to sip the kool-aid and apply themselves stringently to the manager's instructions. However, as much as Longford have improved, they are nowhere near the same level as Donegal or Kildare. They don't have the same physical conditioning all across the pitch, can't put up the same intense defensive wall and don't display the same level of fluidity from backs to forwards and back again. Their best players are in attack, and their defence has a couple of weak links - no matter how they try to mask them - and this is where the Oak Leafers could potentially make hay. Although that will require getting the ball quickly into Paddy Bradley and Emmett McGuckin (and Eoin Bradley, if he plays) so that the opposition don't have time to structure themselves effectively. As we've alluded to many times, deploying Conleith Gilligan in a deeper role might be the best way to achieve this.

In a sense, this is one of the better years to have drawn Longford. They have been televised live on a couple of occasions and have generally received more exposure than usual. So, there are no secrets about how they will play and the Derry management should be prepared for what they offer. Assuming that the required level of preparation has been carried out, ensuring it has been applied effectively to the team that takes the field is another matter, as the Donegal game proved. A lot might depend on the spirit in the Oak Leaf camp. If the players are still feeling sorry for themselves, a confident Longford outfit will not be long smelling blood and putting us to the sword, but the squad should be eager to show a reaction and prove their critics wrong. As well as increasing the intensity and energy levels, Derry also need to get more productivity from midfield in terms of linking the play and adding more attacking output, and an effective kickout strategy needs to be developed.

When all is considered, it's clear that the Oak Leafers have a lot of improvement to make from Ballybofey and it's extremely debatable whether things will have been turned around effectively in two short weeks. There's no doubt we have enough quality players to get us over the line against Longford, but the way the season has gone and judging by our current form, we've probably left ourselves with too much to do.

A time for patience?

Derry fans will probably have spent most of last week trying to get the Ballybofey debacle out of their heads. Shouldn't have been too difficult, because let's face it, this type of scenario isn't exactly new to us. And this season had less expectation surrounding it than most. So business as usual then, nothing to see here?

Not exactly. This past week has actually taken a more unfamiliar tone. One that has contained more despondency - and indeed derision - than would usually be the case after a Derry defeat in the Championship. A tone that has questioned not only the current state of our senior football team, but also the very fabric of Gaelic Games participation in our county. Was last Saturday really Derry's Buddy Holly moment... the day the football died? Surely one 70-minute game isn't an accurate indicator of the current state of football across all levels in the Oak Leaf county?

After taking the temperature of the hotbeds, maybe there is an alternative view to the fickle reaction offered by last week's media outlets. A light in the dark perhaps, a ray of sunshine piercing its way through the blanket.

In order to find that chink of hope, it's necessary to assess the common criticisms levelled at football in Derry and try to figure out if we are really about to fall off the football map:

"Get rid of that manager! There's a better man for the job"
Okay, so let's recap and think about this. We've had Mickey Moran, Paddy Crozier, Damien Cassidy and John Brennan. Not a bad selection of coaches you might say. That's unless you are an Oak Leaf supporter of course in which case they 'know nuthin about fudball'. But it's fair to say each of these men were the best (and most popular) candidates for the job before they were appointed. We have a vicious blame culture at work which should be thought about carefully. Managers need time to stamp their ideas on a squad, and pressure from within the county to take it elsewhere certainly doesn't help.

"There's no strategy or vision for player development in Derry"
Where have we heard the word "strategy" recently? You might vaguely recall the launch of Derry GAA's new five year strategy. Most of us won't have either the time or inclination to read such documents (football is played on the pitch, right?), but at times like these, such strategies provide a certain level of curiosity.

It actually provides some degree of encouragement, once you wade through the usual blather. Conditioning was mentioned a number of times with respect to development squads and to the 18-21 age group, where it was mentioned that Derry would 'Develop a High Performance Academy focusing on 18-21 year olds'. Good stuff on the face of it. And this age-group in particular is an extremely important consideration. We've had successful Minor teams in 2002 and 2007, but haven't built on it. It would be fair to say that players are not being worked on effectively enough when they leave Under-18 level, resulting in them not being ready for senior football. It's encouraging to see firstly, that the powers-that-be are aware of this, but better that they are actually doing something about it.

"What are these development squads for anyway? They should be scrapped"
It appears that these squads have only properly evolved over the last two or three years. This year the development is both summer and winter (in the schools) based. There have been two pretty decent minor teams as a result. Well, the 2011 vintage busted against Fermanagh in the first round, but was certainly a good group of players on paper. But taking this year's team into the equation, the quality seems higher than it was, as even the casual observers of Derry minor teams will attest (and our Under-21s weren't a million miles off Cavan this year either). If we had the choice between nothing and squads of players playing together from 15/16/17/18 receiving professional advice and strength and conditioning programmes, Derry supporters would surely choose the latter.

Also, is it really a bad thing that young fellas get to know one another from across the county at an early age? Hopefully it will help to eradicate the parochial mentality that engulfs our club game - a criticism that is often levelled at our senior squad. There will be late developers and lads who fall back but sure that's all part of life. Everything has to evolve from somewhere. So do coaches if you think about it. We need our players and coaches doing the right things as early as possible, and hopefully this will eventually filter through across all levels.

"Fitness is a big problem"  
It has probably struck you that there might be a link between injury and core strength. All the sports articles tell us that anyway. We all know the injuries we've had, not just this year but ongoing for as long as the mind goes back. But it looks like this is something we are also trying to address. By all accounts there was a fairly extensive counsultation process carried out before Anthony Begley was appointed the new fitness officer. A quote off the Derry website from the County Board might explain more:

‘We want the physical development of our players to be managed on a county wide level, from an early age, right up to seniors. It’s a vast area and why we put so much effort into finding the right person. We’re delighted to have Anthony on board and we look forward to the development and roll-out of his associated programmes across each geographical area of the county.’

Again, it sounds like the right people are aware of our fitness and conditioning problems. Perhaps the Derry senior squad haven't benefited from this as yet, but in a few years we will see if our youth players can reap the rewards.

This strategy was in place long before the Derry players boarded the coach to Ballybofey and it is being implemented as we speak. For example, the Derry website advertises a meeting this week where parents of all those who take part in development squads are asked to attend to hear what apparently will be some kind of vision on their sons’ development.

"All them boys are interested in is bricks and mortar. Look at Tyrone, look at Donegal... What are they doing?"
By the sounds of it, they're all trying to copy Owenbeg! Despite the onslaught of deep recession across Western Europe. If the plastic collection buckets outside MacCumhail Park with 'Centre of Excellence fund' sellotaped to them were anything to go by, the O'Donnell men are looking to purchase a brick or two themselves. Good luck to them. The grants Derry received may not be as handy got in the future. It opens up a scenario whereby investment above and beyond our competitors might be possible in the future.

"Our Schools aren't even as successful as they used to be"
The success or failures of St Pat's Maghera are usually trotted out as a barometer for the health of Derry football. It's obviously more complex than that but let's run with it for the craic. In twenty years from 1976-1996 Maghera qualified for 18 out of 20 MacRory Cup finals, winning 11. In the next fifteen years (1996-2012) they qualified for two, winning one. You could say the malaise has been setting in for a while. But the schools have actually been performing reasonably well recently. St Mary's Magherafelt were a kick of the ball away from defeating double Hogan Cup winners St. Colman's in the 2011 MacRory Cup semi-final. St Pat's grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory in the 2012 final. At one point last year, nearly every Ulster Colleges 'A' football trophy that is possible to win resided in St Pat's.

As an aside, our Clubs haven't exactly been setting the world alight either. Post-1993, Derry club sides continued to be strong in the Ulster Club Championship culminating in a trio of successes with the last nearly ten years ago in 2003. Okay, we're in an era of Crossmaglen dominance, but did we take our eye off the ball right across the board?

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So, where does all that leave us? We all know these lines. Perhaps we've even thought them as we curse at the TV (let's face it, not many actually give the fellas on the teams the support they deserve). Yes, our shop window isn't the prettiest at the minute, but when taking a closer look at the evidence, it seems like there's plenty of people at work on the shop floor trying to improve the product.

A senior team is the result of development undertaken anything up to ten years previous. With that in mind, anyone seeking to draw correlation between existing underage coaching structures and current senior results is conducting flawed analysis. Never in the history of Derry GAA has there been a long term strategy to develop players. On the face of it at least, there now is. There's a huge level of thought and understanding of what is required to drive Gaelic Games in Derry for years to come. It was there before Derry's senior footballers took to the field last weekend, and it will still be there regardless of how well we perform for the remainder of the summer.

There's a ubiquitous Mark Twain quote - that gets bandied about all too often - about an exaggeration of his death. It might be fairly appropriate on this occasion, but let's consider another of his words of wisdom: "A man cannot be comfortable without his own approval." It's about time we were patient about what is going on in Derry football. As we concluded in our analysis of last week's Donegal game, it might well appear to get worse before it gets better, but that doesn't mean we are in a hole we can't get out of. In fact, for once we seem to have the right thinking in place and are not solely reacting to events in the inter-county scene.

At the end of the day we still need talented players and coaches to fulfill our ambitions at the highest level, but there are structures in place to help them thrive and reach those lofty heights. At the very least we should give them a chance.

Donegal v Derry: To have and have not

No question, it was another dark day in the recent history of Derry football at Ballybofey on Saturday. A display reminiscent of the defeats we suffered against Tyrone in the past decade, but in reality we probably have to go back to the late 1980's to find a performance so far off the mark in terms of doing what was necessary to beat the opposition in front of us.

And that's what defeats like Saturday's do. They have us scratching our heads trying to figure out the last time things were this bad. But in the midst of all the hyperbole and tragi-comic post-mortems we can easily forget that Derry came up against a side that are simply playing on a totally different level. A side, it should be remembered, that reached a nadir of their own just two years ago in Crossmaglen. Yet now are viable contenders for All-Ireland glory.

It is easy to blame players and maybe even certain individuals following such a defeat - it's in our psyche as football fans to do just that - but we should remember that no player sets out to play badly and no member of the management team sent the side out to get beaten. When you consider the effort and sacrifices these players have put in for months on end, some coming back from serious injuries after long periods of rehab, it soon becomes apparent that nobody will be hurting more from this defeat than they.

Because of the gulf in class that manifested itself in MacCumhaill park, and the fact that the game was over after 43 minutes (if not before), this was a difficult game to analyse. In truth, if you watch Colm McFadden's goal and the move that preceded it, you would find out all you needed to know about why Donegal won this game and why Derry failed to live with them. Michael Friel had possession and carried the ball into the Donegal half. Here he was met with three Donegal players, with each one more intent on dispossessing the Swatragh man than the last. The inevitable turnover ensues. Suddenly Patrick McBrearty has the ball and the home side break at pace. McBrearty elects to pass to McFadden, but really Donegal had about three men free as Derry struggle to recover. McFadden dispatches clinically to the net.

A neat encapsulation of the story of the game. It highlighted two main problems from a Derry perspective: running into the tackle and being left to watch Donegal as they break at pace.

Unfortunately running into the tackle was a recurring theme for Derry on Saturday. It was a direct result of the number of men Jim McGuiness' side retreated into defensive positions but is also indicative of the immense work-rate they bring out onto the pitch. The Oak Leafers just struggled to get space in the scoring positions as they met challenges a far cry from what they might expect to receive in the All-county league on a Sunday afternoon. These were ferocious tackles, full of intensity and venom. The Derry players had no option but to either go to ground in the hope of winning a free, or give up the ball.

Whilst Derry tried to get men back and work in a similar fashion defensively, their level of fitness and physical conditioning just did not meet the levels required to carry it out. A prime example of this can be seen in the build up to Leo McLoone's first half goal. Before setting McLoone up to sweep the ball to the net, Colm McFadden ghosted around the entire Oak Leaf half-back line without a finger being laid on him. The Derry attackers were never afforded such a luxury.

The second problem - on display during Donegal's second goal - was the ability of the Tír Chonaill men to break at pace through the centre of the oak Leaf defence. Time and again when Derry turned over possession, the Donegal players didn't stand back to admire their hard work, they immediately set off, at pace, down the field in numbers which resulted in the creation of a flurry of chances. Derry weren't able to get the numbers back to prevent the bulk of these from being converted into scores. Mark McHugh, Patrick McBrearty and Frank McGlynn (who was awarded Man of the Match) were constantly up and down the pitch. Neil Gallagher looked like an All-Star. On another day, Donegal might have had another couple of goals. Derry weren't able to support the attack in similar numbers and were subsequently too often left looking for the long-ball option. It wasn't an option at all.

That was more or less that. Donegal's gameplan was carried out with the type of fluidity, intensity and intelligence we've come to expect from them. John Brennan's side had no answer.

Derry's rookie defence were on a hiding to nothing. Chris McKaigue looked comfortable enough for the most part, but his athleticism and footballing ability would mark him out more as a half-back than a full-back. Barry McGoldrick had a decent game in the full-back line and tried to distribute the ball out of defence quickly. John McCamley also fitted in well, putting himself about as he worked between attack and defence. Fitness may have been an issue for the Glen man having just come back from injury, but he can count himself unlucky to be taken off so early.

The Oak Leaf midfield struggled to win primary possession despite Friel and Joe Diver battling hard. One problem was Derry's insistence on hitting their kickouts straight down the middle of the field. At the start of the second half this was Donegal's main method of winning possession. It's hard to lay all the blame for this at the feet of Barry Gillis because kickout strategies must be worked on and constantly practiced on the training field. A cleverly arranged kickout strategy is the sign of a well-prepared team. The Derry minor side were capable of it in Omagh a few weeks back so it's disappointing that their senior counterparts couldn't follow suit. By contrast, Paul Durcan had a lot of joy finding Donegal players on the wing, particularly Michael Murphy and Ryan Bradley. The Derry players looked surprised every time it happened.

The full forward line were starved of service and Paddy Bradley and Emmett McGuckin looked extremely isolated for long periods. McGuckin constantly made intelligent runs and Bradley could have done little more with the ball he received, but too many attacks broke down because the half-forward line could not get into the game - a result of the high pressure put on by the Donegal forwards. Conleith Gilligan could perhaps have been deployed deeper in an attempt to utilise his passing game to bring the Derry forwards into the game quicker, however, it's hard to see how any positional or personnel changes would have affected this horrible result. In fact, so impotent was the Oak Leaf attack that they went almost 50 minutes without scoring from play.

Frustrating times for players, management and supporters alike. Defeat was on the cards from a long way out, and unfortunately the Oak Leafers accepted it too readily.

Overall, not one for the scrapbook, but it's a game and a result that shouldn't just be swept under the carpet. There are some serious lessons to be learned here, both in terms of our own failings and the display of the opposition. It's no secret that Derry have always struggled to cope with teams playing with intense defensive systems, but few of those teams ever played at the level Donegal are currently at. And that's the worry, we're getting left behind, and until we find a cure things will get worse before they get better.

Some other thoughts from Saturday's game:

• Donegal have taken a lot of stick for the way they play, but it would be hard to level any criticism at them for Saturday's performance. They can stifle the opposition as well as get the best out of their key men. Not an easy accomplishment. Despite some apprehensions about their ability to reach last year's heights, themselves and Kildare are very real All-Ireland threats to the current establishment. 
• There's been a lot of talk surrounding the injuries Derry have had, coupled with a spate of retirements. This might certainly have weakened squad depth, but unless we have fifteen men out on the field all working in tandem and performing at a very high intensity, their availability will make little difference when playing teams like Donegal. 
• Having said that, it was encouraging to see Eoin Bradley back on the Championship field in a Derry shirt. Himself and Paddy Bradley had a torrid 2011 and have put in exceptional work just to get out on the football pitch.
• It's been one year exactly this week since Derry defeated Armagh in an Ulster semi-final at Clones. Ten competitive games since. Two wins.
• We were all hoping that Derry's league form would be just that - league form. But Saturday proved that it's not easy to automatically switch to success mode once the Championship comes. In hindsight, if we are getting beat by eight points against Westmeath, is it a surprise Donegal are beating us by ten?
• We need to get more ball-players in the middle third. Midfielders in the modern game need to not only be physical and athletic, but should be able to find a pass and take a score.
• The Derry heads dropped in the second half, but at least the duel between Patsy Bradley and Michael Friel late on added some competitiveness to the side.
• Both Martin McHugh (on BBC) and Tony Davis (RTÉ) claimed that part of the Oak Leafer's problem is the competitive club scene in the county. It's an easy - if not lazy - assumption for people outside of Derry to make, but in reality it's just one of a few fundamental problems existing within our county football scene. Probably worth a volume of postings. 
• We'll get our revenge on Donegal in Round 2 of the qualifiers.

Donegal v Derry: Around the web

It's the day of the game, so no better time to take a look at some of the online interviews and previews of Derry's clash with Donegal at Ballybofey...

Irish Times preview
"Derry’s goal threat is diminished by Eoin Bradley’s absence and they will need to be clinical in kicking points."

Irish Independent preview
Martin Breheny writes... "At face value, it's a massive test for Derry, but, in a different way, it's equally demanding for Donegal."

Hoganstand preview
A lot of stuff you probably already knew, but have a look if you want to refresh your memory.

RTÉ preview
You could save yourself one and a half minutes by not clicking this link. It doesn't even give a prediction on who they think will win. Although the writer believes the following... "Armagh and Tyrone served up entertaining fare last weekend and there is no reason to suggest that another set of neighboring counties won’t do the same." Enough said.

Gerard O'Kane video interview BBC
"Paddy Bradley's leadership qualities are second to none."

Paddy Bradley audio interview BBC
"Ourselves and Donegal always play tight games, whoever takes their chances will prevail."

Joe Diver interview Belfast Telegraph
The Derry midfielder looks ahead to the game... "We have had to bide our time for a year to get another crack at Donegal so to say we will be well motivated would be an understatement."
In the Irish Examiner, Joe also reveals details of a serious eye injury sustained in Australia last year. The type of thing that should make GAA fans appreciate the sacrifices players make to get themselves on the football field.

Jim McGuinness interview
Read this interview if you want to see more stuff like this... "Really it is all about nailing down the key areas in relation to our own game plan. The plan is number one."

StarBets betting preview
Kevin Egan runs his eye over this weekend's football from a betting perspective.

Donegal v Derry: Oakleafers have uphill climb

This kind of thing happens more or less every year. Well, every year since Derry disappeared from the landscape of pre-Championship All-Ireland favouritism, which was roughly 1997. Expectation starts out low - or realistic, depending on your leaning - and everyone is satisfied that the summer will likely be a short one. Then, without much warning, about two days before the first round, the Derry team is named and we reckon it's about as good as anything in the country. Suddenly we're all expecting Derry to win Ulster. Or at the very least, dismiss the poor unfortunate that happens to be standing in our way that coming weekend. And then we'll win Ulster. We all know how that story ends.

Maybe it hasn't been quite as blatant as all that in 2012 as we approach Derry's Championship opener against Donegal, but it's a safe enough bet that optimism in the Oak Leaf county has increased at least slightly this week in the lead up to the game in Ballybofey. In fairness, it couldn't have gone any lower, but there are encouraging noises coming out of the Derry camp, and the team John Brennan has named shows signs that the management are preparing for the Donegal challenge in a pragmatic manner.

But if we crank the realism meter back up a notch or two then we'll come to realise once more that Derry are badly up against it on Saturday. It's not often the bookmakers quote odds of greater than 2/1 about a Derry victory in Ulster, but there are few people across the county and indeed the country that would disagree.

So, how has it come to this? The answer is a simple one: Donegal are the best organised, disciplined and structured side in the country. Jim McGuinness' style of play was the single biggest factor in taking the Tír Chonaill men to the brink of an All-Ireland Final in 2011 and although it has been viciously derided across a seemingly naive media, few could argue with its success. This is a results business.

As far as McGuinness is concerned, 2012 is another chapter in the tale and he believes that his heavily oiled machine should work even more efficiently and effectively having had a year's experience behind it. He'll expect his squad to go one step further this season.

Unfortunately, Derry aren't anywhere near as well developed. As the league campaign proved, we are some way off competing with the likes of Dublin on the biggest stage (something Donegal have shown they are capable of). Defeats against Westmeath and Galway were symptomatic of a Spring campaign that didn't yield the required preparation for Championship football. John Brennan's hands were tied due to a long injury list and was subsequently too often forced to play a makeshift team that prevented the side from practicing any defined plan. It also meant Brennan could not get a clear idea as to what his best team was in terms of personnel. With retirements from the likes of Kevin McCloy, Kevin McGuckin and Enda Muldoon as well as long-term injuries, it was imperative that the league would bring some continuity and consistency of performance. It didn't happen, instead producing more questions than answers.

And in the ten weeks since the 2012 league campaign unraveled once last time in Mullingar on Easter Sunday, good news on the injury front has not been forthcoming. Dermot McBride - Derry's most consistent defender in the last two seasons - is out, as is the Lavey target man Cailean O'Boyle, who was enjoying his best year in an Oak Leaf shirt. On top of that (most significantly of the lot) Eoin Bradley is not fit enough to start in Ballybofey and it appears has not even been named on the substitutes.

It is against this backdrop that we play an excellent Donegal side, on their home turf in an Ulster quarter-final. How's that optimism coming along?

There is some hope however for the Oak Leafers as we approach Saturday's clash. Donegal's league form was nothing special, suffering defeats to Down, Laois, Kerry and Dublin. They had good wins over Cork, Mayo and Armagh but this mixed bag of results suggests they are currently struggling to find consistency and there must be a worry about their ability to just pick up where they left off in last year's Championship. The performance against Cavan is hard to guage considering the lack of intensity the Breffni men brought to the encounter, but it is likely they will be closer to their best on Saturday with four solid weeks of training behind them since.

Another issue Jim McGuinness has is the fitness worries surrounding Rory Kavanagh and Michael Murphy. McGuinness won't name his side until closer to throw-in, but it is expected that the duo will start. Bar Karl Lacey these two are arguably the most important cogs in the Donegal machine. Kavanagh's athletic ability and Murphy's ball-winning prowess and score-taking are big parts of what makes this side tick. They are unlikely to be 100%, but even still, Derry cannot afford to take chances with the ability of these two to run a football game.

A third - only potential - problem facing the Tír Chonaill squad is that of the so-called "second-season syndrome", something we flagged up in our Ulster Championship preview last month. A lot of column inches have been spent on the Kevin Cassidy saga, but with good reason. He was the heartbeat of Donegal in 2011 (and for many seasons before) and his kicking to the proverbial kerb is bound to have some effect on the harmony of the squad and their level of performance in the heat of battle. When playing a system like Donegal's, everyone - first teamers and squad members alike - must all pull in the one direction. If any dissent creeps in, things will fall apart very quickly. Last season everyone bought in, but to do that for a second season will be much more difficult. How long can the Donegal players continue to show the self-sacrificial qualities that have taken them so far? When their backs are against a wall, or they fall behind in a game, surely the desire and belief that highlighted 2011 will be diluted a year on.

As much as that is a possibility this season, if not an inevitability, unfortunately for Derry those cracks will probably not appear for another few weeks.

While there are these minor question marks over Donegal, they are heavy favourites for good reason and Derry will have to do something special to beat them. John Brennan's team selection has hinted at a more defensive strategy for his side than the traditional, open tactics employed last season. No matter where your stomach sits on the scale of puke to pure, most Derry fans would agree that those same tactics - which didn't work against Donegal in last year's Ulster Final - won't work eleven months later. Jim McGuinness has built a side around a solid defence, but it's their forwards that win matches. Their influence must be curtailed.

The signs are encouraging. It appears that John McCamley will play as a sweeper in front of the Donegal duo of Colm McFadden and Patrick McBrearty. Gerard O'Kane is also likely to retreat back from the half forward line. The extra numbers in defence will be utilised in order to break up Donegal's offensive patterns and close the space afforded to the likes of Murphy, Kavanagh and Mark McHugh. The general idea will be to force the Ulster champions into a recycling of possession and tempt them into bringing more numbers forward. Derry will then aim to strike on the counter-attack, hoping that space will have opened up for the pace of Mark Lynch, Paddy Bradley and Enda Lynn. Easier said than done. If such a tactic is indeed employed however, then it might be useful to have Conleith Gilligan playing in a deeper role, as he has the footballing ability to find the sharp direct passes that would help make Derry's attack more fluid. It would also aid the Oak Leaf cause if, when we have possession, Lynch, Bradley and Emmett McGuckin stick to central positions. The bulk of the Donegal defenders will naturally follow which should leave space for the likes of O'Kane, Lynn and even Sean Leo MGoldrick on the flanks. From here, they can both create and weigh in with long-range scores. A kickout strategy that doesn't just involve Barry Gillis kicking the ball through the middle would also help. If Derry have spare men in defence, they should be made use of.

The end game is not only devising, but also implementing a strategy that negates the influence of Donegal's key men whilst allowing the Oak Leafer's scoring talent to express themselves.

There's one problem though - Derry's players are not used to playing in this way. And due to the amount of club games played in recent weeks, John Brennan's time with his squad has probably been much less than he would have liked. New tactics and new ideas need time to bed in, as well as plenty of practice. This Derry squad hasn't had it. A further problem is that the defence named is very inexperienced. McCamley and Eugene Scullion are making their debuts, while Chris McKaigue and Mark Craig are starting a Championship match for the first time in two of the most pivotal positions on the field. Brennan appears to be taking a gamble, but it's hard to think of what else he could have done.

A lot has to go right for Derry to win this. One hope is that the game might open up - thanks to Derry taking an early lead or even a sending off - at which point the Oak Leafers would certainly have enough firepower to win the game. However, all things considered, it's hard to see past a Donegal victory. They have enough experience and enough discipline to see of a dynamic Derry side that might take some time to find its feet. A winning margin in the neighbourhood of 3-5 points certainly wouldn't surprise.

Still, all Oak Leaf fans will travel in hope. But in order for that hope to turn to joy, Derry's gamble in team formation must payoff in terms of breaking Donegal down, and unless this is coupled with each player showing the necessary intensity and stupendous work-rate for a full seventy minutes - something Donegal display as a bare minimum - then this type of game will continue to be a struggle and any real Championship success will continue to elude.

Donegal v Derry: Brennan names team

At the annual Club Derry event tonight, held in the Oakleaf Restaurant, John Brennan announced his starting team for Derry's USFC quarter-final contest with Donegal at Ballybofey on Saturday:

Barry Gillis, John McCamley, Chris McKaigue, Sean Leo McGoldrick, Barry McGoldrick, Mark Craig, Eugene Scullion, Joe Diver, Michael Friel, Gerard O’Kane, Mark Lynch, Enda Lynn, Conleith Gilligan, Paddy Bradley, Emmett McGuckin

Such was the manager's reduced options - especially in defence - and the fact that Derry haven't played competitively in ten weeks, it was always likely that this side would contain one or two surprises.

Two debutants are included, Eugene Scullion and John McCamley. Scullion has been touted as a possible starter in recent weeks after it became apparent that Dermot McBride would be injured, while McCamley's inclusion is the strongest indication yet that Derry will deploy a more defensive strategy against Donegal. Unlikely to actually play as a corner-back, the Watty Graham's man will probably play a sweeping role in front of the Donegal full-forward line (reprising the role that was cut short against Down in this year's McKenna Cup). The Tír Chonaill men do not play with six conventional forwards, so the positions of the Oak Leafers starting fifteen, and the numbers on their respective backs is of little relevance.

For six games in the league, the Derry full-back line contained Brian McCallion, Chris McKaigue and Aidan McAlynn. Only McKaigue will start in Ballybofey. Barry Gillis - called in as an emergency goalkeeper back in February - will start his first Championship game since 2010.

Mark Craig also returns after missing part of Derry's fractious NFL campaign and will take up the centre-half back berth, while Barry McGoldrick will add some Championship experience to the half-back line. The Coleraine man has not been a first choice regular this season, but he has the footballing ability to help the Oak Leafers move the ball out of defence, which could be an important part of Derry's approach if they plan on playing in a counter-attacking style. The most obvious omission from the half-back line is Charlie Kielt.

Michael Friel was Derry's most consistent midfielder during the league and his inclusion is not surprising. The other midfield spot was up for grabs however and perhaps the experience of Joe Diver and his strong running ability has given the Bellaghy man the nod over the likes of PJ McCloskey, Patsy Bradley and Niall Holly.

John Brennan will be boosted by the availability of Gerard O'Kane. The fitness of the Glenullin man has been a matter of some conjecture over the past few weeks, but his presence will add some valuable experience to the Derry line-up, not to mention pace and guile and an ability to carry possession.

O'Kane's return is tempered somewhat by the absence of his clubmate Eoin Bradley; news that is likely to be the headline story from this Derry lineup in tomorrow's papers. Brennan must feel that Bradley is not 100% fit to start the game. If this is the case, then it is pointless throwing him in from the start and hoping for the best. The ability to spring him from the bench at anytime might be a more valuable alternative.

Emmett McGuckin is the man to benefit and he could well form a two-man full forward line with Paddy Bradley, while Conleith Gilligan is used in a deeper role. Enda Lynn has been rewarded for his excellent NFL campaign with a start in the half-forward line. It's a forward division that is fairly dynamic with pace and scoring ability, but against such a strong Donegal defence, it must show patience and creativity.

All in all it's a physical Derry team and one of the more interesting starting fifteens of recent seasons. The Oak Leafers are out to avenge last year's Ulster Final defeat, and whilst the bookmakers odds suggest that might not happen, John Brennan has at least picked a side that suggests Derry are trying to learn from the mistakes made last July.

We'll find out just how much the Oak Leafers have learned on Saturday.

Burn after reading

Derry's recent Championship record against Donegal is far from impressive. A quick trawl through our ten most recent encounters with the Tír Chonaill men shows seven defeats and just three wins. The record goes back as far as the late 1980's when Donegal started the first of three consecutive victories against the Oak Leafers with a narrow Ulster semi-final win in 1989. They recorded a more facile victory in another semi-final one year later at a sparsely populated Clones. In the four Ulster semi-finals the sides have contested in this time, Donegal have won all of them.

The sides have met in four Ulster Finals in their last ten championship meetings, with the spoils being shared at two apiece. The two counties famously enjoying Anglo-Celt victories over each other en route to their All-Ireland successes in the early 1990s.

If there is a glimmer of light for Derry in this rather unfavourable recent rivalry, it's that in the one Ulster SFC quarter-final clash between the sides, it was the Oak Leafers who came out on top - in Ballybofey in 2008. That is pretty much in keeping with Derry's excellent first-round record: 20 wins in 25 years.

This Saturday's latest renewal against our neighbours will also be a quarter-final at Ballybofey, so don't write us off just yet.

2011 Ulster Final: Donegal 1-11 Derry 0-8
2009 All-Ireland qualifier Rd 3: Donegal 2-13 Derry 0-18 (aet)
2008 Ulster SFC quarter-final: Donegal 1-12 Derry 1-14
2006 Ulster SFC semi-final: Donegal 1-13 Derry 0-11
2002 Ulster SFC semi-final: Donegal 1-9 Derry 0-10
1998 Ulster Final: Derry 1-7 Donegal 0-8
1993 Ulster Final: Derry 0-8 Donegal 0-6
1992 Ulster Final: Donegal 0-14 Derry 1-9
1990 Ulster SFC semi-final: Donegal 1-15 Derry 0-8
1989 Ulster SFC semi-final: Donegal 2-8 Derry 1-9

Somebody wins, somebody loses

"The most valuable commodity I know of is information..."

One of the great movie villains of the 1980s, Gordon Gekko, uttered these words in the 1987 film Wall Street. Many others will have said them over the course of human existence, but Gekko (played brilliantly by Michael Douglas) was relating it specifically to market trading and how he could gain an edge over his opponents in the corporate broking world. The general concept however can apply to a range of subject matters, not least sports betting, but also to the world of sports preparation and indeed Gaelic football. Leading up to this Saturday's meeting with Donegal, Derry carry at least one edge over their opponents: information. Put simply, we know more about them than they do about us.

This is not just because the Derry management have been able to watch Donegal already in this year's Ulster Championship, it's based more on the general fact that we know exactly how Jim McGuinness' side are going to play. We watched them throughout last summer, including two intense games against Kildare and Dublin, as well as having seen them in that championship match against Cavan back in May.

Anyone who thinks Donegal might deploy a more attacking system this season can think again. McGuinness is still in charge and nothing will change.

As the manager, he is the person most responsible for the performance of his football team. Forget about any nonsense analysis that suggests the players are ultimately responsible for a team's results - just because they're the ones actually playing on the pitch. The manager is the person who creates the environment for their team to play to their strengths, stifle opponents and try and put a system in place that will win football matches. If the manager has a strong enough voice and can get his players believing in his preferred method of play, that team will go further than a manager whose message is incoherent or who doesn't have the respect of his players.

When judging the results of their previous few seasons, Donegal are a brilliant example as to how the manager is the key difference maker in any team (as was Joe Kernan's influence in Armagh and Mickey Harte's in Tyrone). Using - by and large - the same group of players his predecessor John Joe Doherty had at his disposal, McGuinness transformed Donegal from a team who were knocked out in the first round of the qualifiers in 2010, to the verge of an All-Ireland Final in 2011, as Ulster champions. A remarkable turnaround. He dilligently put a system together that would give his group of players the best possible chance of winning football matches. A system that leaves very little to chance, avoids risk and uncertainty and will be almost equally effective despite the quality of opponent. As far as he possibly can, McGuinness will be drumming this same method into his players in 2012. He told us as much following their victory over Cavan in May.

Most of the time, pre-match and post-match interviews from players and managers gleans little other than clichéd soundbites, but the best managers generally speak honestly about their team's performances and their contentment (or lack of it) can often tell us a lot about what to expect from their team the next day out.

After the preliminary game at Breffni Park the Donegal manager had this to say:

“When you’re working on things you want to execute it. A lot of things in the second half weren't ruthless and for 20 minutes there was a feel of a challenge match. We weren’t clinical. If we were professional from the first minute until the last we wouldn’t have gone down that road.”

In other words, during the second half when his players were wandering forward, McGuinness was not happy. They were veering from their predetermined system of play. As mentioned above, it's a system that pays little regard to differences in opposition. Whether they are playing Cavan, Derry, Kerry or Dublin, McGuinness will set his side up to execute in the exact same way.

“It’s irrelevant who we play and we gauge ourselves against what we want to do. It was Cavan today and it’ll be Derry the next day and then it’ll be Tyrone or Armagh, if we get through, the game after that. What we need to do is get our own house in order. It really is about ourselves, how we see the opposition and how we see it unfold.”

It appears the fact that Donegal won't really know what to expect from the Oak Leafers is of little consequence. Donegal's is an approach built to withstand whatever or whoever is thrown at it. Derry have struggled with defensive gameplans throughout the last decade, but few of the teams we have faced in that period are as well drilled or organised as this Donegal side (as we found out to our cost in last year's Ulster Final). What have the Derry management and players learned from these defeats? Can we counteract these teams with a defensive system of our own? Will we apply a more patient style of play in order to control possession?

Recent history goes against us, as does an ever-lengthening injury list. So in order to break the mould Brennan must come up with a plan that will negate Donegal's strengths and take their key men out of the game. Derry took pragmatic approaches against Monaghan in 2009 and Tyrone in 2006. Fire was met with fire and the Oak Leafers came out on top. As those games - and indeed Donegal's performances last season - proved, aesthetics don't matter, nor does the margin of victory. The one objective is to win the football match. As Gekko himself said: "It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses."

McGuinness has been kind enough to show us his hand; we have all the information we need. John Brennan and his Derry players know exactly what to expect from the opposition this weekend in Ballybofey. That's the good news. The question now is, what are they going to do about it?