Can You Feel it?

The 125th running of the All-Ireland Championship is underway, and in the picture below you can see how the GAA officially launched this year's competitions; by bringing a few high-profile captains (last year's provincial winners and Tyrone by the looks of it) together to don 1884 get-up.

How authentic it was too. Brian Dooher, Graham Canty and the like in their vintage rig-outs, dust caps, and Puma Kings.

With the pristine, modern stands of Croke Park providing an almost anachronistic backdrop, perhaps the GAA were trying to remind us once more about how far the Association has come since its 19th century inception. Perhaps the thought never even crossed their minds.

Either way it hardly matters, because the action starts for real this weekend; that's if we're prepared to forget about the New York v Mayo charade last Sunday. And with it takes place that most notorious of rounds in the most demanding provinical competition: The Ulster SFC preliminary round.

What a horrible place in which to find yourself.

As if the prospect of three rounds in Ulster wasn't bad enough (although Derry supporters have forgotten what even that might be like), a fourth makes winning the title a near impossibility. Over the last half-century only Armagh (in 2005) have managed to win the Ulster crown after having been drawn in the preliminary round.

Thankfully Derry have managed to avoid preliminary participation this year. That fate belongs to Down and Fermanagh and it's a difficult game to call.

Fermanagh recieved rave reviews during last year's Championship and they came close to winning the Ulster title. But they didn't quite manage it, and when looking beyond the hype, it's very hard to get excited about Malachy O'Rourke's side. They played five games in total during last season's campaign... they won two.

Creeping past a rudderless Derry in the Ulster semi-final was as good as it got for the Ernemen, with all their problems exposed in an awful display in Croke Park against Kildare.

A misfiring forward line was their achilles heel throughout 2008, and they don't seem to have rectified the problem. They suffered a terrible NFL campaign in Division 2, collecting only three points, and achieving relegation in the process. O'Rourke looks to have contracted a case of 'second-season syndrome', but the first season wasn't even anything special.

Down's 2008 season came pretty close to mirroring Fermanagh's. A promising Ulster campaign started with a surprise first round victory against Tyrone, but just like the Ernemen, their provincial challenge was ended by Armagh, before a weak performance in Croke Park against Leinster opposition (Wexford) ended their summer.

If Fermanagh's problems lie mainly in attack, then Down's lie primarily in defence, part of the reason why they succumbed to Tipperary in the recent NFL Division 3 Final, and also why they are unlikely to still be in the Championship hunt come late summer.

It all adds up to make this a 50/50 game on Sunday. I.e. don't rush to the bookies for this one. Both teams have big problems, but if gun was put to my head I'd possibly fancy Down to shade it.

Fermanagh will miss Ryan McCloskey (who was the rock on which their defence was formed last season), and with Barry Owens out they are weakened in this area. Up front meanwhile, they risk starting with two newcomers in a hopeful attempt to boost their scoring power.

Down boast more firepower with Daniel Hughes and Paul McComiskey impressing in the forward-line, while Benny Coulter's possible appearance could add further strength to this area. They should get the scores required to win the game.

It isn't an entirely exciting prospect at Brewster Park, but despite the weaknesses and inconsistencies of both sides, don't be surprised to see Sunday's winner in this year's Ulster Final (as they fall into the weaker side of the Ulster SFC draw).

However, history will be against them if they get there.