Maybe it hasn't been quite as blatant as all that in 2012 as we approach Derry's Championship opener against Donegal, but it's a safe enough bet that optimism in the Oak Leaf county has increased at least slightly this week in the lead up to the game in Ballybofey. In fairness, it couldn't have gone any lower, but there are encouraging noises coming out of the Derry camp, and the team John Brennan has named shows signs that the management are preparing for the Donegal challenge in a pragmatic manner.But if we crank the realism meter back up a notch or two then we'll come to realise once more that Derry are badly up against it on Saturday. It's not often the bookmakers quote odds of greater than 2/1 about a Derry victory in Ulster, but there are few people across the county and indeed the country that would disagree.
So, how has it come to this? The answer is a simple one: Donegal are the best organised, disciplined and structured side in the country. Jim McGuinness' style of play was the single biggest factor in taking the Tír Chonaill men to the brink of an All-Ireland Final in 2011 and although it has been viciously derided across a seemingly naive media, few could argue with its success. This is a results business.
As far as McGuinness is concerned, 2012 is another chapter in the tale and he believes that his heavily oiled machine should work even more efficiently and effectively having had a year's experience behind it. He'll expect his squad to go one step further this season.
Unfortunately, Derry aren't anywhere near as well developed. As the league campaign proved, we are some way off competing with the likes of Dublin on the biggest stage (something Donegal have shown they are capable of). Defeats against Westmeath and Galway were symptomatic of a Spring campaign that didn't yield the required preparation for Championship football. John Brennan's hands were tied due to a long injury list and was subsequently too often forced to play a makeshift team that prevented the side from practicing any defined plan. It also meant Brennan could not get a clear idea as to what his best team was in terms of personnel. With retirements from the likes of Kevin McCloy, Kevin McGuckin and Enda Muldoon as well as long-term injuries, it was imperative that the league would bring some continuity and consistency of performance. It didn't happen, instead producing more questions than answers.
And in the ten weeks since the 2012 league campaign unraveled once last time in Mullingar on Easter Sunday, good news on the injury front has not been forthcoming. Dermot McBride - Derry's most consistent defender in the last two seasons - is out, as is the Lavey target man Cailean O'Boyle, who was enjoying his best year in an Oak Leaf shirt. On top of that (most significantly of the lot) Eoin Bradley is not fit enough to start in Ballybofey and it appears has not even been named on the substitutes.
It is against this backdrop that we play an excellent Donegal side, on their home turf in an Ulster quarter-final. How's that optimism coming along?
There is some hope however for the Oak Leafers as we approach Saturday's clash. Donegal's league form was nothing special, suffering defeats to Down, Laois, Kerry and Dublin. They had good wins over Cork, Mayo and Armagh but this mixed bag of results suggests they are currently struggling to find consistency and there must be a worry about their ability to just pick up where they left off in last year's Championship. The performance against Cavan is hard to guage considering the lack of intensity the Breffni men brought to the encounter, but it is likely they will be closer to their best on Saturday with four solid weeks of training behind them since.
Another issue Jim McGuinness has is the fitness worries surrounding Rory Kavanagh and Michael Murphy. McGuinness won't name his side until closer to throw-in, but it is expected that the duo will start. Bar Karl Lacey these two are arguably the most important cogs in the Donegal machine. Kavanagh's athletic ability and Murphy's ball-winning prowess and score-taking are big parts of what makes this side tick. They are unlikely to be 100%, but even still, Derry cannot afford to take chances with the ability of these two to run a football game.
A third - only potential - problem facing the Tír Chonaill squad is that of the so-called "second-season syndrome", something we flagged up in our Ulster Championship preview last month. A lot of column inches have been spent on the Kevin Cassidy saga, but with good reason. He was the heartbeat of Donegal in 2011 (and for many seasons before) and his kicking to the proverbial kerb is bound to have some effect on the harmony of the squad and their level of performance in the heat of battle. When playing a system like Donegal's, everyone - first teamers and squad members alike - must all pull in the one direction. If any dissent creeps in, things will fall apart very quickly. Last season everyone bought in, but to do that for a second season will be much more difficult. How long can the Donegal players continue to show the self-sacrificial qualities that have taken them so far? When their backs are against a wall, or they fall behind in a game, surely the desire and belief that highlighted 2011 will be diluted a year on.
As much as that is a possibility this season, if not an inevitability, unfortunately for Derry those cracks will probably not appear for another few weeks.
While there are these minor question marks over Donegal, they are heavy favourites for good reason and Derry will have to do something special to beat them. John Brennan's team selection has hinted at a more defensive strategy for his side than the traditional, open tactics employed last season. No matter where your stomach sits on the scale of puke to pure, most Derry fans would agree that those same tactics - which didn't work against Donegal in last year's Ulster Final - won't work eleven months later. Jim McGuinness has built a side around a solid defence, but it's their forwards that win matches. Their influence must be curtailed.
The signs are encouraging. It appears that John McCamley will play as a sweeper in front of the Donegal duo of Colm McFadden and Patrick McBrearty. Gerard O'Kane is also likely to retreat back from the half forward line. The extra numbers in defence will be utilised in order to break up Donegal's offensive patterns and close the space afforded to the likes of Murphy, Kavanagh and Mark McHugh. The general idea will be to force the Ulster champions into a recycling of possession and tempt them into bringing more numbers forward. Derry will then aim to strike on the counter-attack, hoping that space will have opened up for the pace of Mark Lynch, Paddy Bradley and Enda Lynn. Easier said than done. If such a tactic is indeed employed however, then it might be useful to have Conleith Gilligan playing in a deeper role, as he has the footballing ability to find the sharp direct passes that would help make Derry's attack more fluid. It would also aid the Oak Leaf cause if, when we have possession, Lynch, Bradley and Emmett McGuckin stick to central positions. The bulk of the Donegal defenders will naturally follow which should leave space for the likes of O'Kane, Lynn and even Sean Leo MGoldrick on the flanks. From here, they can both create and weigh in with long-range scores. A kickout strategy that doesn't just involve Barry Gillis kicking the ball through the middle would also help. If Derry have spare men in defence, they should be made use of.
The end game is not only devising, but also implementing a strategy that negates the influence of Donegal's key men whilst allowing the Oak Leafer's scoring talent to express themselves.
There's one problem though - Derry's players are not used to playing in this way. And due to the amount of club games played in recent weeks, John Brennan's time with his squad has probably been much less than he would have liked. New tactics and new ideas need time to bed in, as well as plenty of practice. This Derry squad hasn't had it. A further problem is that the defence named is very inexperienced. McCamley and Eugene Scullion are making their debuts, while Chris McKaigue and Mark Craig are starting a Championship match for the first time in two of the most pivotal positions on the field. Brennan appears to be taking a gamble, but it's hard to think of what else he could have done.
A lot has to go right for Derry to win this. One hope is that the game might open up - thanks to Derry taking an early lead or even a sending off - at which point the Oak Leafers would certainly have enough firepower to win the game. However, all things considered, it's hard to see past a Donegal victory. They have enough experience and enough discipline to see of a dynamic Derry side that might take some time to find its feet. A winning margin in the neighbourhood of 3-5 points certainly wouldn't surprise.
Still, all Oak Leaf fans will travel in hope. But in order for that hope to turn to joy, Derry's gamble in team formation must payoff in terms of breaking Donegal down, and unless this is coupled with each player showing the necessary intensity and stupendous work-rate for a full seventy minutes - something Donegal display as a bare minimum - then this type of game will continue to be a struggle and any real Championship success will continue to elude.
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