Gone are those heady days of 2008 and 2009 when it was left to Kerry and Derry to battle it out for Division 1 NFL honours. Instead we still find ourselves in Division 2 after missing out narrowly on promotion last season (on points difference). It brings to mind Fr. Jack Hackett's famous lament: "Don't tell me I'm still on that feckin' island!".
Donegal and Laois were the chief beneficiaries of Derry's misfortune last year and they have been replaced by the relegated Monaghan and Galway. Also joining the Division 2 party is Louth and Westmeath, replacing Antrim and Sligo. There doesn't seem to be a huge jump up or down in terms of quality, and if anything the division seems to have a fairly even spread.
The second tier is a notoriously difficult group to get out of - just ask Kildare and Meath who have been around there for four seasons now. Whovever finishes in the top two places will have earned it, so let's take a look at the teams standing in Derry's way...
v Derry: Sunday February 5th (Celtic Park)
Odds to win Division 2: 5/1
Odds to finish bottom: 12/1
The Tribesmen are first up for Derry in this year's Division 2 campaign and bar a difficult trip to Salthill in 2008, the Oak Leafers have a decent record against the Connacht-men in the last few years. It's been a poor couple of seasons in Galway. Joe Kernan wasn't long hanging around after a 2010 season that saw them beaten at home to Wexford in the Championship, and Tomás O Flaharta didn't fair much better last season. In 2011 Galway were unceremoniously relegated from the top tier of the NFL and Meath ousted them in a Round 2 qualifier. This year they have dispensed with the "outside manager" formula and have gone back to basics with local man Alan Mulholland starting from square one. There's been a lot of talk surrounding whether or not Padraig Joyce will rejoin the fold, but the absence of Micheal Meehan will hurt them most. With all of that you would think a bit more weight would fall on Nicky Joyce's elusive shoulders, but he doesn't even start in Celtic Park this weekend. Instead Mulholland has placed his faith in youth, and he will hope that under-21 midfielder Thomas Flynn comes good at senior level.
A home game against Galway represents a good opportunity for Derry to get the league off to a winning start, but it's hard to know what to expect against an unpredictable team that have a lot to prove this season.
Tyrone
v Derry: Sunday February 12th (Healy Park, Omagh)
Odds to win Division 2: 3/1
Odds to finish bottom: 28/1
Our dearest neighbours are second on the fixture list and are favourites to win the Division 2 trophy. Last year Derry stumbled over the finishing line to record a one-point victory over the Red Hands in the opening game of the NFL season, and the previous year the Oak Leafs won with something to spare in Division 1 before both sides wound up getting relegated. Those wins came at Celtic Park, so Mickey Harte will be glad to play Derry this year in Omagh. The last time Derry travelled there it was 2009 and the home team recorded a two-point victory. Following Saturday night's win over Derry in the McKenna Cup final, Tyrone will come into this game confident and they will be keen to follow up that marker with another victory. Red card notwithstanding, Tyrone outclassed Derry in the second half of that game, and unless Derry can return to the level of confidence and energy displayed in the opening stages at the Athletic Grounds, two points will be very difficult to come by in this game.
The Red Hand forward line seems to have remained prolific, despite the introduction of some new faces, but there is a weakness about their defence. They are suspicious under the high-ball and are lacking in tight man-marking corner-backs. It will be their achilles heel come the summer and it is something Derry should be looking to exploit.
Monaghan
v Derry: Saturday March 3rd (Celtic Park)
Odds to win Division 2: 14/1
Odds to finish bottom: 7/2
We've built up a nice little rivalry with Monaghan over the last few years. Since 2007 to be precise when they beat us in Casement. You hardly wanted to be reminded of that debacle - and a few others that came after it - but they were defining games in many respects for both teams. Some might call it a horrible rivalry (and they'd probably be right) but either way it's fair to say it caught most of us by surprise. The last time we played them was in Scotstown in March 2010. It was a really bad Derry performance that put the first nail in the relegation coffin, but things have gone downhill for the Farney-men since then. This will be the first time Derry have played Monaghan since Banty was at the helm and it just won't be the same without him. And you could go so far as to say that the rivalry as we knew it is now over. Odds of 14/1 to win the division signal just where Monaghan are right now, and Eamon McEnaney has a rebuilding job on his hands following a disappointing Championship exit to Offaly last year. The unavailability of Tommy Freeman has hit them hard and while they won't be walked over, they seem to have lost the edge that defined them in the late 2000s. This match won't carry the same edge either.
If Derry are going into this game without any league points this a good chance to get off the mark, and if we have any serious aspirations of getting promoted from Division 2, this game at Celtic Park is a must-win.
Kildare
v Derry: Saturday March 11th (Newbridge)
Odds to win Division 2: 10/3
Odds to finish bottom: 33/1
The match away to the Lilywhites is the second of four consecutive games in March and is arguably Derry's toughest task of the campaign. Kildare have been a bogey team for Derry the last couple of seasons. They've knocked us out of the Championship in both 2010 and 2011 and, put simply, it hasn't been close. Their non-stop running game, speed of movement and speed of thought has left Derry wanting. Kieran McGeeney's side are at a very late stage in their development and if silverware doesn't arrive soon they will be known as another team of also-rans. They maybe have a window of another couple of seasons and a Leinster title must be their chief concern. That makes it difficult to assess just how much they want to push forward in the NFL and they have a tendency to take their eye off the ball early in the season. Although that particular tactic usually ends up with them exiting the Leinster Championship early with a long qualifier route ahead of them. They are strong all over the pitch, but their one weakness is a lack of natural marksmen in the forward line. It's debatable whether or not the potential arrival of Seanie Johnston from Cavan would help them in this regard.
John Brennan will relish the challenge this particular fixture brings and will be aware of how his side went to Newbridge last year and collected two points. You would like to think a similar result this time around would put Derry right in the frame for promotion, but it will be a difficult task.
In the second part of our NFL preview we will look ahead to Derry's remaining competition in Division 2: Meath, Louth and Westmeath. Try and contain yourselves...
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