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v Derry: Sunday March 18th (Navan)
Odds to win Division 2: 11/2
Odds to finish bottom: 10/1
On St. Patrick's Day weekend, a week after they visit Newbridge, Derry will find themselves in Navan. These two games will be crucial in deciding our ultimate fate in this division and if promotion is the aim then we can't afford to lose both of them. The Oak Leafs and the Royals have had a very healthy rivalry in the league down the years, with Derry's NFL Final victory in Clones back in 2000 probably being the highlight. And adding some spice to this particular encounter is none other than Seamus 'Banty' McEnaney, now in his second year as manager in Meath. It's been something of a tumultuous ride for the former Monaghan manager and you get the feeling that the locals still haven't really accepted him into the fold. Last season they survived in Division 2 by the skin of their teeth and were beaten by Kildare in the Championship, twice (and you thought Derry had problems with the Lilywhites!). So McEnaney will be keen to get this season off to a good start so that he isn't swimming against the tide for the remainder of 2012. That means pushing hard for promotion, but with an over-reliance on some of their older names - 38 year-old Graham Geraghty is looking for a starting spot - it is a tough ask. Meath are never a team to go down without a fight however, and in Stephen Bray, Cian Ward, Joe Sheridan and Graham Reilly they have a forward line that can get enough scores to win games.
John Brennan got the better of McEnaney in last year's game in Celtic Park, but coming in the middle of a busy March, this fixture looks like a very dangerous one for the Derry men.
Louth
v Derry: Sunday March 25th (Celtic Park)
Odds to win Division 2: 15/8
Odds to finish bottom: 33/1
Derry's final four games are all against Leinster opposition and while the games against Kildare and Meath have the potential to derail any promotion hopes, the good news is that our final two fixtures come against the two teams that came up from Division 3 last season, Louth and Westmeath. The 'Wee' county travel to Celtic Park at the end of March and even at this stage John Brennan will be ear-marking the game for maximum points. Despite finding themselves on the verge of a Leinster title in 2010 and winning promotion the following year, Peter Fitzpatrick's side appear to be on a downward slide. Meath routed them in last year's qualifiers and it's difficult to imagine Fitzpatrick geting much more out of them. They are a team that have their main strength around the middle of the field, and are once again reliant on Darren Clarke to get the requisite scores. Their chief aim will be staying in the division and to that end a trip to Celtic Park won't necessarily be at the top of their list of importance. This Sunday's opening game against Westmeath will be key and they will be be targeting derby games against Meath and Monaghan to try and muster up the points they need to avoid relegation. That's not to say they will throw in the towel on their way up to Derry City (and they could be fighting for their lives by that stage), but they may have their eye on other battles.
The sides last met in 2007 when Derry recorded a facile victory in a Division 1B game that ended up with the Oak Leafers securing promotion. John Brennan will be hoping for a similar result all round.
Westmeath
v Derry: Sunday April 8th (Mullingar)
Odds to win Division 2: 15/8
Odds to finish bottom: 33/1
Come the final round of Division 2 games on Easter Sunday, Derry will have an idea of what they need to do to secure promotion (or God forbid, avoid relegation). Or possibly our fate - whatever it is - will have already been decided before the journey to Mullingar is embarked upon. Westmeath are a team that have featured heavily in Derry's recent history for one reason or another. And it's been all good (1995 All-Ireland Minor Final and 1994 NFL quarter-final notwithstanding). The Oak Leafers beat the midlanders in the 2004 All-Ireland quarter-final and also in a Round 2 qualifier in 2010. In between was a 14-point victory in Ballinascreen in a 2009 Division 1 tie, so Derry will be approaching this tie with some confidence. Westmeath football has been at a low ebb for a couple of seasons with successive relegations and poor Championship campaigns. Manager Pat Flanagan has his work cut out this season also, with a number of players opting to play for the county's hurling team, and the Garrycastle contingent (including the Dolan brothers and Doran Harte) concentrating on the All-Ireland Club Championship. The Lakemen's squad should improve as the league goes on, with the likes of Dessie Dolan back in the county fray by the end of March, but it might be too late for them if they fail to gather points earlier in the season.
John Brennan is unlikely to underestimate this away fixture, but Derry's approach to this game will depend on where they find themselves in the league table (likewise with Westmeath). However, if points are required this fixture should provide them.
Derry
Odds to win Division 2: 6/1
Odds to finish bottom: 9/1
So where does all that leave Derry? It appears to be a reasonably manageable set of fixtures, with the game against Kildare standing out in terms of difficulty. Derry have beaten all seven of these teams the last time they have played them in the NFL so overall there is nothing to fear. As always with the Oak Leafers consistency will be key, and games against Galway, Tyrone and Monaghan allow for a good start. If we can pick up six points in those three games (a tall order) we will be well on our way towards promotion and it would allow for a bit of breathing space before the tricky trips to Newbridge and Navan. If Derry fail to hit the ground running they will have a bit of work to do and the games against Louth and Westmeath may come too late to make a promotion charge. A lot will also depend on the availability of players and it will benefit the team greatly if the forward trio of Paddy Bradley, Conleith Gilligan and Cailean O'Boyle can stay healthy.
As the age-old cliché goes, we'll just have to take it one game at a time. But rest assured that John Brennan has a strong desire to get his county back into the top tier, so Derry will be going all out right from the first throw-in against Galway.
Verdict
It's unlikely to be cut and dry. In a division that looks so even, any one county will be doing well to exceed a total of ten points and that should keep things interesting for much of the campaign. This is a very difficult division to predict but at the outset it looks like Kildare are going to be in very good shape earlier than usual this year and they should finish in the top two. Tyrone will be experimenting to a large degree and their performances (like in the past few NFL seasons) might be too erratic to get promotion, while Meath love Division 2 too much to ever want to leave. Outside of that, Galway look like they could be dark horses and might just have the bit between their teeth during the spring. They are likely to be Derry's main rivals for one of promotion spots, and the opening game between the sides in Celtic Park could be critical when the final tallies are totted up. Monaghan meanwhile can't afford to get too far off the pace, or else they'll be in danger of finding themselves in a relegation dogfight. Louth and Westmeath shouldn't trouble the sides at the top end of the table, though any points they do pick up could have an important bearing on the overall standings.
Derry have a decent chance, but it will take a few excellent performances throughout the campaign, and even a bit of luck for once when the tiebreakers come into play.
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